Jake Gloudemans

Predictions #7

September 24, 2023 at 2:14 PM

The bad news - I’ve fallen so far behind in writing up my tournament predictions that I am no longer willing to put in the effort it will take to get caught up. So the reasoning behind my last few weeks of predictions will be lost to history.

The good news - I’m somehow currently in 1st place in the tournament and actually have a good chance of winning! There’s only about a week left, and while I have 1 or 2 questions that I definitely will lose points on, there are a bunch more that I’ll probably gain points on. And win or lose, it’s pretty cool to be at the top this late in the game!

However things turn out, I have lots of thoughts and observations from 3 months of predicting that I’m excited to write about. Whether or not I end up joining the next Quarterly Cup (undecided on this, though if I end up winning it will be tough not to defend my crown), I’ll probably focus on writing these up, rather than detailing all my predictions.

Current Metaculus Stats
Total Points 1515 (+540)
Overall Rank 807 (-376)
QC Resolved Qs 30 (+11)
QC Open Qs 19 (+1)
QC Rank 1 (-1)
QC Take 10.4% (+3.8%)